Bitcoin is seeing a bit of a pullback after hitting a fresh all-time high just three days at $108,268.15. At the time of writing on Friday evening, Bitcoin is down to about $94,138.
This market correction would seem like a common occurrence to anyone who has been following financial instruments for some time — as minor pullbacks often follow all-time highs across markets.
But, if you listen to “Pharma Bro” Martin Shkreli, this correction marks the beginning of something more sinister and extreme — an 18-year long bear cycle.
The Spark: Shkreli’s comments, as heard in a recent stream, didn’t pull any punches. He pointed to the dangers of leveraging heavily on Bitcoin and the temptation of margin calls.
“This guy is, you know, basically daring the market to liquidate him,” Shkreli stated, referring to Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor.
His core message is even more staggering. Shkreli argued that the current bull market hype could lead to a period of prolonged stagnation, perhaps mirroring historical cycles seen elsewhere in the U.S. equities market.
Draw parallels to the 1980s stock market, controversy’s poster child Shkreli suggested Bitcoin could enter an “18-year digestion” period similar to a flat period seen in those markets, where prices remain stagnant or decline for an extended period of time.
Beyond the immediate price action, Shkreli is challenging the fundamental belief systems within the Bitcoin community.
“It’s easy to be a true believer when Bitcoin goes from 30K to 100K,” Shkreli remarked, “Will you be a true believer if it goes from 100K to 30K?”
Short $MSTR $BTC $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT $GALT https://t.co/TEtbsRzGQZ
— Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) December 18, 2024
Shkreli suggests that if this speculative bubble bursts, the real “true believers” will be revealed.
Don’t put your faith in Trump? The hope that governments or politicians will drive up crypto prices may be misplaced, says Shkreli. “They lie to you,” he says.
“You walk out of the room thinking you’re the smart guy, the politician walks out knowing that he just pleased you.”
He suggests that the idea of governments backing Bitcoin or buying massive quantities at a premium may be misguided and should be taken with a grain of salt, referring to U.S. President elect DonaldTrump expressing interest in building a Bitcoin federal reserve.
How realistic are his concerns? Shrkeli’s “analysis” doesn’t seem to have a rooting in anything beside Microstrategy’s leverage concerns, which ave divided the Bitcoin community’s opinion.
Microstrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, uses debt to load up more and more of the apex crypto every chance this gets.
It also means the leveraged Bitcoin play moves way more drastically than the underlying crypto itself — in both directions, as MSTR’s 31% fall over the past month would testify.
An important factor here though is that a major chunk of Microstrategy’s Bitcoin reserves are unencumbered, as disclosed by the company, meaning that they are not tied to the debt the company has taken on to make the purchases and Microstrategy would not have to sell them to repay the loans.
Meanwhile, the apex cryptocurrency’s floor itself has been rising by the year with mainstream finance getting exposure through new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offerings of Blackrock, Fidelity, Greyscale and Ark Investment Management — which are seeing record inflows.
Blackrock’s IBIT or iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has been the fastest growing new fund this year with over $24 billion in inflows, according to data shared by the asset manager this week.